Baku to Belem

In 1616, the Portuguese built a fortress at the mouth of the Amazon delta to defend its interests in Brazil against colonisation attempts by the British, French and Dutch. Today, Belem hosts COP 30 - the global negotiation on how to tackle climate change.

What is a COP?

Why COP 30?

COP 30 is expected to be about action/ execution, not new policy. We’re expecting a focus on:

1. Securing Ambitious National Climate Plans (NDCs): A core objective is for all countries to submit enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with more ambitious 2035 emissions-reduction targets that align with the 1.5°C goal, as current plans are insufficient and we’re expecting to breach the 1.5 goal..
2. Scaling Up Climate Finance: COP30 aims to finalize the "Baku-to-Belém Roadmap" to mobilize at least US $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 in climate finance for developing countries, involving both public and private sectors, to bridge the significant funding gap.
3. Advancing Adaptation and Resilience: A major focus will be on transitioning from adaptation planning to concrete implementation, including agreeing on a set of indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) to measure progress and secure necessary financial support for vulnerable nations.
4. Focus on Forests and Nature-Based Solutions: Held in the Amazon rainforest, the conference will emphasize halting and reversing deforestation by 2030, protecting Indigenous Peoples' rights, and launching a potential "Tropical Forests Forever Facility" to fund forest preservation efforts. The UK has already bowed out of this one (Politico).
5. Accelerating the Energy Transition: The conference seeks to push countries to outline clear timelines for the "transitioning away" from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030, and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements.

It's easy to get jaded. They are expecting over 50,000 delegates, many of whom will be lobbyists1 looking to influence progress, for good and bad. How much negotiation and policy can one get done with so many?

Listen to Christiana Figueres (previous COP21 president instrumental in the Paris agreement 10 years ago) talk to the current COP30 president, André Corrêa do Lago, on the challenges ahead.

This time around, the organisers have been extremely active in getting grassroots support and local groups involved. They’re implementing their own flavor of local representation: the Mutiroa. Looking forward to seeing these groups exert an urgency and a balancing force in the debates and the outcomes!

Conspicuous by their absence is any senior representation from the US administration (France24). Does this mean the EU and the UK can be more help in pushing for market and financial reform?

UPDATES

1. 14 November 2025: 1 in every 25 delegates have been identified as a fossil fuel lobbyist - Guardian