It's a Con Job!

Climate change, according to the President of the USA, is..

"the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world"

What's remarkable about this statement in his speech to the UN on the 23rd September, is that no-one in the audience appeared to blink during the news footage I watched.

Lessons of history

Over the last week, I've been rereading a truly insightful book by the historians Will and Ariel Durant, "Lessons of History". It's a clear reminder how political power flows over time. Read the book for a better description and examples going back millennia. For the purposes of this comment: libertarian societies that value individual freedom and organize themselves into democracies will eventually develop wealth inequalities. Those inequalities will drive the political structures towards socialism and communism, sometimes violently. After a period of authoritarian rule, the pendulum swings back to favour personal liberties and free enterprise. And then repeat. Not hard to follow as a concept, but surprisingly reliable with a wide enough time frame. But it is not just wealth inequalities. The catalysts could equally have come from threats from an external force, like a war mongering neighbour.

Today's threats

When I look at the volume of near-term existential threats we are currently feeling, it's not hard to see the patterns in many communities and nations pushing towards collective action, highlighting inequalities and the desperate need to address injustices. These are the catalysts of our time. Climate change and biodiversity collapse is definitely playing a major role in the threats we feel today. It is without a doubt - at least in my mind - that we are in the middle of a global regime change away from democracy, personal liberty and free enterprise brought on by these threats. What we will end up with in ~decade is unclear and - optimistically - still within our control.

Political leaders - in power to overtly support the billionaire overclass - have no choice but to criticize anything that is driving their economies away from neo-liberal economics. They need the status quo to exist as long as possible and it is, therefore, perfectly rational to hear a major world leader try and debunk a very real threat.

What do we want?

For all those that felt betrayed early this week, we should use this moment to focus our collective attention and confirm we see the same things:

• We are in the middle of a global regime change.
• The time of highly deregulated global trade is coming to an end, driven by the inequalities it has created (see history).
• Fears of climate change and biodiversity collapse are accelerating this change.

Violent regime change will create pain, suffering and poverty and will be disastrous for everyone. We need to work hard to avoid this. Instead of being angry at the situation, what can we do to make a peaceful transition? What can we do to stay focused and positive on steering the transition away from the hate driven up by nationalism, inequality, injustice.

I hope every day that we can move peacefully into the next cycle, under the rule of law, guided by strong institutions to hold politicians to account. The UN needs to step up and facilitate this transition for the fairness of all those here today, and all those to come tomorrow. The 21st century can easily descend into the darkest of times. What do you choose?